Emsi calculates replacement jobs over the timeframe selected by the user, but does so year over year rather than for the whole timeframe as an aggregate. The replacement demand for a particular year is calculated by multiplying the occupational employment for that year by a replacement rate. These replacement rates are national, occupation-specific rates provided by the BLS Employment Projections (EP) program.
With the release of its 2017.3 US datarun, Emsi has moved to the new BLS replacement rates, produced by their updated “Separations” methodology. The BLS’s previous methodology, known as the “Replacements” methodology, was built on the assumption that a worker entered an occupation at a young age, remained in the occupation for the duration of his or her career, and retired at the end of the career. This is not the case for most occupations in most places. Because of the assumptions built into the old methodology, the BLS was significantly undercounting the number of young people leaving occupations, as well as undercounting the number of older people entering new occupations. As a result, replacement needs were being significantly undercounted by the old BLS methodology. The new methodology corrects the deficiencies of the old one and produces higher replacement figures, which are much closer to actual replacement needs.
To learn more from the BLS about the old and new methodologies, visit the links below:
- BLS Replacements Methodology
- BLS Separations Methodology
(used in Emsi dataruns prior to 2017.3)
(used in Emsi 2017.3 and following dataruns)
The incorporation of this new methodology is a significant improvement for Emsi’s replacements and openings figures. Users should expect to see significantly higher replacements and openings when using Emsi’s 2017.3 datarun onward. For more information from Emsi on the reason for and impact of the change, see Emsi’s blog post.