Emsi industry/occupation-specific unemployment estimates are derived from the following sources:
- Characteristics of the Insured Unemployed (CIU; Dept. of Labor, Employment and Training Administration)
- Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS; BLS)
- Emsi final industry/occupation data
The goal is to get from unemployment rates for the total workforce at the county level (captured in LAUS), and unemployment rates for industries and occupations at the state level (CIU), to unemployment rates for every industry and occupation at the county level.
We start by applying the ratio that expresses how long it takes for workers to find another job to the number of people unemployed from LAUS in order to get an estimate of the total number of unemployed people at the county level. We then use the state ratios of unemployment breakout by industry and occupation from CIU to break out unemployment by industry and occupation at the county level. We adjust unemployment by industry and occupation at the county level based on ratios we have developed for how many people will stay in the region looking for a job based on recent growth or decline in industries. The assumption is that a declining industry will have a greater number of people unemployed and a growth industry will have fewer people unemployed. Emsi final estimates are the result of this process.